From: Jimmy Wales (jwales@aristotle.bomis.com)
Date: Fri Apr 06 2001 - 19:38:41 MDT
Are there any good critiques of Hans Moravec's estimates in "When will
computer hardware match the human brain?"
http://www.transhumanist.com/volume1/moravec.htm
Moravec arrives at an estimate of 100 million MIPS.
Ray Kurzweil has an estimate of 20 billion MIPS, I believe. So they
disagree by a factor of 200. That's between 6-7 doublings, so if
Moore's law holds at a rate of 18 months per doubling, then we're
talking about a difference of 11-12 years. Call it 10-15 years to
partically account for the vagaries of the 18 month estimate.
IBM is planning a 1 billion MIPS computer (Blue Gene) for 2005,
so it turns out that the difference is really relevant in the short
run.
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