Moravec's estimates?

From: Jimmy Wales (
Date: Fri Apr 06 2001 - 19:38:41 MDT

Are there any good critiques of Hans Moravec's estimates in "When will
computer hardware match the human brain?"

Moravec arrives at an estimate of 100 million MIPS.

Ray Kurzweil has an estimate of 20 billion MIPS, I believe. So they
disagree by a factor of 200. That's between 6-7 doublings, so if
Moore's law holds at a rate of 18 months per doubling, then we're
talking about a difference of 11-12 years. Call it 10-15 years to
partically account for the vagaries of the 18 month estimate.

IBM is planning a 1 billion MIPS computer (Blue Gene) for 2005,
so it turns out that the difference is really relevant in the short

*              *
*      The Ever Expanding Free Encyclopedia     *

This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.5 : Wed Jul 17 2013 - 04:00:36 MDT