Re: [sl4] Rolf's gambit revisited

From: Stathis Papaioannou (
Date: Mon Jan 05 2009 - 03:59:51 MST

2009/1/5 Norman Noman <>:

> Of course, here we have just two AIs with relatively simple, non-interfering
> goals. In real life it would be dizzyingly complicated. But, I contend, no
> less significant. A cooperation between all potential powers, in ratio to
> their likelihood to exist, wold look very different than an individual power
> acting alone.

This is the main problem with Rolf's Gambit / Pascal's Wager. You
convince yourself that you should pay a small amount for a large
reward of small probability, which seems reasonable until every other
tribe, prophet or special interest group demands payment for their
unprovable reward or punishment. And then there are all the special
interest groups that might possibly exist, or come to exist. It's only
if you find evidence in support of one god among all the possible gods
that you should pay it special attention. Anthropomorphism along the
lines of "God must think something like me in order to make me" does
not count as such evidence. Finding an indestructible tuba on a moon
of Saturn may increase your certainty that there is a god, but not
which god and hence not which god you should obey, unless the tuba is
clearly predicted by a particular religion.

Stathis Papaioannou

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