From: Lee Corbin (lcorbin@rawbw.com)
Date: Sat Mar 08 2008 - 21:53:55 MST
I had written
Consider the case now after five days have passed. We compute
that the expectation is that just one of you will still be
alive, because every day 100/101 are eliminated, whether or
not they saw an H or a T.
What will this one remember? It's possible that he will remember
TTTTT, but that is very unlikely. That would only occur if each
day the 100/101 death toll struck only those who had received
"heads". The chances are (100/101)^5, which is close to .95,
that he would remember HHHHH.
And if this continues, then a "T" will crop up in a long sequence
of mostly H's about one time in one hundred and one.
Therefore, as before, the subjective probability is 100/101
that on each trial you'll see an H.
William writes
> Isn't there only a 64% chance anyone will be alive after one
> iteration? And after 5 iterations only a 10.2% chance that
> anyone will be alive?
Sorry, I don't follow your reasoning and arithmetic. Can you
explain?
Lee
> Unless it is not 100/101 chance and you are somehow coupling the split
> universes together so you can be sure not to kill more than 100 copies
> of yourself.
>
> Will Pearson
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.5 : Wed Jul 17 2013 - 04:01:02 MDT