Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

From: Robin Hanson (
Date: Sat Nov 10 2007 - 13:22:48 MST

At 11:12 AM 11/10/2007, Joshua Fox wrote:
> So I am here to ask: where are the best analyses arguing the case for
> rapid (non-emulation) AI progress?

Another approach is this: All that remains on the road to AGI is figuring out how intelligence works. Some researcher(s) will do so. We don't know when, but it is fundamentally a mathematical/philosophical advance rather than a nitty-gritty understanding of the quirks of a biological systems. The implementation  is just a Simple Matter of Programming.
The understanding could be achieved by one genius with a brain-flash, or by a community making progress together....
This is different from, e.g., reaching Alpha Centauri, which would require solving more than one engineering problem ... Indeed, I'd say that it's different from life extension, which requires understanding multiple biological systems and engineering a well-balanced fix to certain problems.

OK then, what are the arguments suggesting a single insight has a good chance to make this much difference?  

Robin Hanson
Research Associate, Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University
Associate Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
703-993-2326  FAX: 703-993-2323

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