From: Алексей Турчин (avturchin@mail.ru)
Date: Wed Oct 24 2007 - 03:51:45 MDT
Here could be used Gott formula, that show the probability of single event depending of time in which it didn''t happened.
We didn''t reach AI after 50 years of attempts. It means that we have 1/50 probability to create it next year, and 50 per cent probability that we create it from 15 to 150 years from now.
But Gott formula could not be applied absoluttely correctly here.
See for Gott formula and Bayesian discussion on it this text (but Cave' objection to Gott is wrong on my opinion):
'Predicting Future Duration from Present Age:A Critical Assessment'
Carlton M. Caves
http://info.phys.unm.edu/papers/2000/Caves2000a.pdf
Also we could use statistic of creating other important developments, like plane (100 years), or convering plumbum in gold (500 years)to estimate how much it takes to reate somthing 'impossible'.
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.5 : Wed Jul 17 2013 - 04:00:58 MDT