**From:** Mitchell Porter (*mitchtemporarily@hotmail.com*)

**Date:** Mon Feb 05 2007 - 18:07:10 MST

**Next message:**Eliezer S. Yudkowsky: "Re: Optimality of using probability"**Previous message:**Marian Iskandar: "Marian I has sent you a private message"**Maybe in reply to:**Eliezer S. Yudkowsky: "Optimality of using probability"**Next in thread:**Eliezer S. Yudkowsky: "Re: Optimality of using probability"**Reply:**Eliezer S. Yudkowsky: "Re: Optimality of using probability"**Messages sorted by:**[ date ] [ thread ] [ subject ] [ author ] [ attachment ]

If you the programmer ('you' being an AI, I assume) already have the

concept of probability, and you can prove that a possible program will

estimate probabilities more accurately than you do, you should be able

to prove that it would provide an increase in utility, to a degree

depending on the superiority of its estimates and the structure of

your utility function. (A trivial observation, but that's usually where

you have to start.)

If you the programmer have to *invent* the notion of probabilities -

that's a little harder. I can imagine that a predictor which uses the

shortest-program principle to model its environment might discover

induction - the 'model' would then be 'use the model you get by

applying these heuristics of induction to the saved data'.

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