Re: [Bulk] Re: Manhattan, Apollo and AI to the Singularity

From: Michael Anissimov (
Date: Thu Aug 24 2006 - 21:37:03 MDT

On 8/24/06, Keith Henson <> wrote:

> I have scoped this out from time to time. The last time I did it I think
> it took 150 meters of silicon on a side. It is going to take considerable
> time before the technology is up to the task.

The Japanese just built a supercomputer that runs at 10^15 ops/sec.
The usual estimates for human-level computing power are around 10^17.
So, two orders of magnitude or so, which works out to about 10 years
or so in Moore's law terms, or molecular computing, whichever comes
first. Brian Wang has also been following the quantum computing scene
on his advanced nanotechnology blog, very interesting, the progress in
that area - and scary.

Michael Anissimov
Lifeboat Foundation

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