**From:** Peter de Blanc (*peter.deblanc@verizon.net*)

**Date:** Thu Jun 08 2006 - 12:32:32 MDT

**Next message:**David Picon Alvarez: "Re: Two draft papers: AI and existential risk; heuristics and biases"**Previous message:**Robin Lee Powell: "Re: Two draft papers: AI and existential risk; heuristics and biases"**In reply to:**Ben Goertzel: "Re: [agi] Two draft papers: AI and existential risk; heuristics and biases"**Messages sorted by:**[ date ] [ thread ] [ subject ] [ author ] [ attachment ]

On Thu, 2006-06-08 at 08:25 -0700, Ben Goertzel wrote:

*> Hmmm... IMO, the latter statement is pretty silly...
*

*>
*

*> I have never met a scientist who did not accept Bayes Theorem as a
*

*> piece of mathematics.
*

*>
*

*> The argument between Bayesian and other approaches to uncertain
*

*> inference and statistical modeling is not about whether Bayes Theorem
*

*> is true or not, but rather about which heuristic assumptions one
*

*> should make when applying this and other probabilistic mathematics to
*

*> the real world. Classicial statistics makes one set of heuristic
*

*> assumptions, conventional Bayesian statistics makes another ...
*

*> alternate approaches like Walley's imprecise probabilities or NARS
*

*> make yet other assumptions.... I happen to find some of these
*

*> assumption-sets preferable to others, but that's another story..
*

Okay, maybe I was being a bit sensationalist. I should instead have said

that the Bayesian philosophy of science is not part of the scientific

consensus.

What heuristic assumptions do you think Bayesian statistics make?

**Next message:**David Picon Alvarez: "Re: Two draft papers: AI and existential risk; heuristics and biases"**Previous message:**Robin Lee Powell: "Re: Two draft papers: AI and existential risk; heuristics and biases"**In reply to:**Ben Goertzel: "Re: [agi] Two draft papers: AI and existential risk; heuristics and biases"**Messages sorted by:**[ date ] [ thread ] [ subject ] [ author ] [ attachment ]

*
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.5
: Wed Jul 17 2013 - 04:00:56 MDT
*