Re: The Conjunction Fallacy Fallacy [WAS Re: Anti-singularity spam.]

From: BillK (
Date: Thu May 04 2006 - 04:21:09 MDT

On 5/4/06, Ben Goertzel wrote:
> One of the beautiful things about us humans is that we have soooo many
> different ways of being stupid, with so many different causes ;-)

Even in the most careful people with modern computer aids.

Buggy spreadsheets: Russian roulette for the corporation

Panko has collected the best available evidence for spreadsheet error
rates, based on field audits by organisations such as Coopers and
Lybrand, KPMG, and HMCE (the UK's Customs and Excise department). Of
54 spreadsheets audited between 1997 and 2000, no fewer than 49 were
found to contain significant errors - a defect rate of 91 per cent. In
a more recent exercise, every single one of 30 project financing
spreadsheets scrutinised had at least one mistake.


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