Re: Anti-singularity spam.

From: Jef Allbright (
Date: Wed May 03 2006 - 11:15:50 MDT

On 5/3/06, Eliezer S. Yudkowsky <> wrote:
> I think that Kurzweil is a serious, honest, on-the-front-lines futurist
> who does his best to justify his predictions. I don't think Kurzweil is
> e.g. consciously aware that each additional detail he specifies in his
> justifications drives down the joint probability of his entire book.
> Since I have not studied Kurzweil extensively and do not have a history
> of correct predictions about him, I may be wrong.
> There's plenty of middle ground between your two alternatives of
> following the Way and being a loose cannon, and that's where I'd place
> Kurzweil.

In addition to being a futurist, Kurzweil is a sales and business
person. His writings are crafted to influence a broad popular
audience. I have little doubt that if he were speaking privately and
directly, many of his pitch points would be seen to possess more depth
and subtlety.

That said, as is usual with successful salespersons, and generally
anyone who is passionate about how they think the world *should* be, I
think he's bought into much of his own story to the exclusion of some
broader possibilities.

- Jef

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