**From:** Phillip Huggan (*cdnprodigy@yahoo.com*)

**Date:** Fri Feb 17 2006 - 00:51:54 MST

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When assigning probabilities to things (such as time horizons for sl4 technologies), I label one slice of the probability pie to the category *unknown/unknowable*. For areas of study I know well the unknown slice is a sliver. Is this the same thing that is being described as weighting the bayesian probabilities? Isn't it easier to make this a one step process, or is there a reason why only two options must be presented for any given probability branch?

Marc Geddes <m_j_geddes@yahoo.com.au> wrote: <SNIP>

Is there such a thing as

'a probability of a probability' ?

See a new paper by Robin Hanson arguing for a new

Bayesian framework wherein probabilities can be

assigned to priors:

http://hanson.gmu.edu/prior.pdf

Also see blog entry by Ben Goertzel:

*The management of uncertainty in the human brain: new

experimental insights*

"In other words, some of us maverick AI theorists have

been saying for a while that using just ONE number

(typically probability) to measure uncertainty is not

enough. Two numbers -- e.g. a probability and another

number measuring the "weight of evidence" in favor of

this probability (or to put it differently, the

"confidence" one has in the probability) -- are needed

to make a cognitively meaningful algebra of

uncertainty."

Link:

http://www.post-interesting.com/

<SNIP>

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