From: P K (kpete1@hotmail.com)
Date: Tue Feb 14 2006 - 09:41:55 MST
>Yes, I know that they are working on _Friendly_ GAI. But my question is:
>What reason is there to think that the Institute has any real chance of
>winning the race to General Artificial Intelligence of any sort, beating
>out those thousands of very smart GAI researchers?
>
There is no particular reason(s) I can think of that make the Institute more
likely to develop AGI than any other organization with skilled developers.
It’s all a fog. The only way to see if their ideas have any merit is to try
them out. Also, I suspect their donations would increase if they showed some
proofs of concept. It’s all speculative at this point.
As for predicting success or failure, the best calibrated answer is to
predict failure to anyone attempting to build a GAI. You would be right most
of the time and wrong probably only once or right all the time (o dear,
heresy).
That doesn't mean it isn’t worth trying. By analogy, think of AGI developers
as individual sperm trying to reach the egg. The odds of any individual are
incredibly small but the reward is so good it would be a shame not to try.
Also, FAI has to be developed only once for all to benefit.
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