From: H C (lphege@hotmail.com)
Date: Thu Jan 26 2006 - 09:16:54 MST
Perhaps it might be pertinent to address that this "judgement" is "under
uncertainty"
:-p
>From: "Olie L" <neomorphy@hotmail.com>
>Reply-To: sl4@sl4.org
>To: sl4@sl4.org
>Subject: RE: JQ Test 1.0
>Date: Thu, 26 Jan 2006 14:06:09 +1100
>
>>From: "H C" <lphege@hotmail.com>
>>Reply-To: sl4@sl4.org
>>To: sl4@sl4.org
>>Subject: JQ Test 1.0
>>Date: Thu, 26 Jan 2006 01:00:22 +0000
>>
>>(Judgment Quotient)
>>
>>Judgement Quotient Test 1.0
>>
>>-These questions might seem... familiar :)
>>--First of all, how well does everyone score, second of all, did I get the
>>answers right? :-p
>
>Did you get the questions right?
>
>Some require certain prior knowledge, others "expect" that you don't use
>prior knowledge.
>
>>
>>
>>1. A random sample of 100 professionals was done. Seventy of those
>>interviewed were lawyers, and thirty of those interviewed were engineers.
>>Dick is a 30 year old man. He is married and has no children. A man of
>>high ability and high motivation, he promises to be quite sucesful in his
>>field. He is well liked by his colleagues.
>>
>>a.What is the probability that Dick is a lawyer:
>>b.What is the probability that Dick is an engineer:
>
>Hang on; are any of the lawyers also engineers? The question says nothing
>about that, but common knowledge says that it's not common for lawyers to
>also be engineers. I do know some people who are on the bar, who also have
>other professions.
>
>Does it make any difference? (There is a correct answer).
>
>Common knowledge, combined with the other factors, might also skew the
>possibilities. Lawyers might be significantly more likely to have kids.
>
>Do we bring in common knowledge, or take the questions in isolation?
>
>>
>>2. A certain town is served by two hospitals. In the larger hospital about
>>45 babies are born each day, and in the smaller hospital about 15 babies
>>are born each day. As you know, 50 percent of all babies born are boys.
>
>That's not actually true -
>www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_population/PT90book_V2.pdf
>
>So, no, I didn't know that.
>
>>However, the exact percentage may be higher or lower on any given day. For
>>a period of 1 year, each hospital kept a record of how many days more than
>>60% of the babies born were boys.
>>
>>Which hospital recorded more such days?
>>The larger hospital, or the smaller hospital, or the same (within 5
>>percent of each other).
>>
>>>
>>
>>5. Suppose there is some student who made A's and B's in 9th and 10th
>>grade, and straight A's in eleventh and twelth grade. Assuming that only
>>10% of college freshman make straight A's their first
>>semester, what would you guess the probability is that this student makes
>>straight A's- greater or less than 50%?
>
>Again, common knowledge (correlation)? What proportion of 11th and 12th
>grade students get straight A's?
>
>If only 1% of 11s and 12s get straight As, this does significantly impact
>the question.
>
>>
>>9. Suppose that...
>>Also, suppose John is enrolled in an introductory computer science class
>>in his freshman year in
>>college, and likes to play video games and read science fiction.
>>
>>What is the probability that John is a computer science major- greater
>>than 50% or less than 50%?
>
>I would think that this question /requires/ certain knowledge about course
>options. If (the college) or (most colleges) only allow students to take
>computer science classes if they are enrolled in a computer science major,
>this dramatically increases John's chances of being a CompSci major.
>
>Imagine if the question were about Jurisprudence of Court Procedure
>class... it would almost guarantee the student was studying law.
>
>>
>>ANSWERS:
>>
>>1:a.70, b.30 ,2:smaller , 3: c, 4: 50/50 bet, 5:less than , 6: Bill,
>>7:poor or moderate , 8:a , 9:less than , 10:B
>>
>>
>
>
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