Re: Why invest in AGI?

From: H C (
Date: Sun Jan 22 2006 - 10:34:14 MST

Well, it is arguable that IF you simulate an entire human brain, then you
could create an AGI, in a sense (I guess you would be simulating an actual
person). Thus, your Singularity take-off happens.


>From: Richard Loosemore <>
>Subject: Re: Why invest in AGI?
>Date: Sun, 22 Jan 2006 21:18:02 -0500
>There is only one problem with your story: I very much fear that it is not
>true that if we got brain-power hardware, we would get an AI.
>If you gave Microsoft a set of four Blue Gene-L machines, they *still*
>would not be able to deliver a bug-free version of Word any time in the
>next century.
>We probably have the hardware power right now. What we lack are the right
>theoretical approach and software techniques. More particularly, I think
>we lack the right software-construction tools.
>You might respond that it does neverthless make a compact story to give to
>an investor: I'm not sure, though, because I think they know, intuitively,
>that it has a false ring to it.
>Richard Loosemore.
>Dani Eder wrote:
>>My simple story for potential investors:
>>The human brain has 100 billion neurons, each with
>>synapses firing at an average of 100 Hz, for a total
>>firing rate of 100 x 10^15/sec.
>>A modern CPU chip (Athlon 64 X2 4800+, 2.4 GHz) has
>>two cores
>>each processing an average of 1.5 calculations/cycle x
>>64 bits.
>>This gives a bit rate of 460 x 10^9.
>>There is some question about how much data a synapse
>>equates to, but assume 1 bit/synapse firing for now. Thus
>>it would take 217,000 of these CPU chips to equate to
>>a human
>>The most powerful computer in the world (Blue Gene-L)
>>40% fewer CPU chips, and they are each 39% as powerful
>>as the
>>Athlon above, for a total of about 1/4 of the required
>>So the failure of AI to date can be explained by the
>>lack of
>>adequate hardware.
>>Special purpose AI accelerator chips, similar to
>>accelerator ships, may buy you a factor of
>>10 improvement. Clever programming may buy you
>>factor of 10, and the expected improvement in
>>in the next 5 years will get you another factor of 5.
>>This would bring the number of blade servers required
>>to ~430, which is a reasonably small number. So an
>>in accelerator chip design and AI programming, coupled
>>the expected improvement in computers overall, could
>>true AI in 5 years.
>>DRN (I've previously signed my messages 'Daniel', but
>>Daniel Radetsky signs his messages the same way. To avoid confusion I'm
>>now using the initials of my
>>re-enactment persona 'Daniel of Raven's Nest', which
>>where my email address comes from. Dani Eder is my
>>world name)
>>Do You Yahoo!?
>>Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around

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