Re: SL4?

From: Keith Henson (
Date: Wed Jan 18 2006 - 12:36:59 MST

At 04:30 AM 1/18/2006 -0800, Daniel wrote:


>Since future progress is not predictable, the state
>of civilization becomes less predictable with
>distance in the future. So the idea that there is
>a time horizon beyond which we cannot make useful
>predictions is no more amazing to me than there is
>a depth of water through which I cannot see looking
>down from a boat.

That's true. But in the last 50-60 years the time frame for really fast
progress in such matters as AI has shrunk from billions of years (A. C.
Clarke Against the Fall of Night/City and the Stars) to at most a few decades.

That makes it a *personal* concern.

Keith Henson

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