Re: guaranteeing friendliness [more about reaching AGI now that Ben has improved the thread]

From: Ben Goertzel (
Date: Sun Dec 04 2005 - 17:53:06 MST

> But, the 500 x $1000 (or a few thousand) for hardware
> doesn't seem that tough compared to your other expenses
> (when you are ready).


> Does the above presume (any of) the following:
> 1) The approximate 1000 fold increase in computing power
> (at any particular price point) that 15 years may
> bring?

It assumes perhaps a 10-fold increase over this time period, not a
1000-fold increase

> 2) Appreciably more RAM per PC than is common today?
> (1 to a few GB are now common) or perhaps
> must faster (and larger) disk drives which
> perform well enough to substitute for current
> RAM?

Well, appreciably more RAM per PC would help a lot but is not
necessary. Novamente is a distributed architecture, but of course
minimizing distributed-ness speeds things up a lot hence decreasing
the number of machines required...

> 3) A large number of "breakthoughs" in AI technique?

No, just a lot of small discoveries and a lot of "tuning" within the
existing Novamente AI architecture.

> 4) Any significantly "hard" breakthroughs?

Not really...

> 5) Adult-level "scientist" AI is also a "programmer"?
> (i.e., able to program and learn how to program
> better.)

Yes, that's the end goal...

-- Ben G

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