**From:** Ben Goertzel (*ben@goertzel.org*)

**Date:** Tue May 31 2005 - 06:14:20 MDT

**Next message:**Marc Geddes: "A disclaimer - I am *not* a Singularitarian"**Previous message:**Marc Geddes: "RE: Bayesian epistemology versus Geddesian epistemology"**In reply to:**Marc Geddes: "RE: Bayesian epistemology versus Geddesian epistemology"**Messages sorted by:**[ date ] [ thread ] [ subject ] [ author ] [ attachment ]

*> >As a side comment, I also of course reject Marc
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*> >Geddes' suggestion that
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*> >Bayesian inference and deduction are unrelated.
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*>
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*> I never suggested any such thing Ben. *Of course*
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*> Bayesian inference and deduction are related. What I
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*> was doubting was whether they could be *completely*
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*> integreted. Can deduction be completely integrated
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*> into the Bayesian framework, or is there something
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*> (however small) amiss?
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Well, I don't really know what "the Bayesian framework" means....

Logical deduction is simply the process of deriving conclusions from axioms

via repeated application of the axioms to each other....

Thus, deductions can be made based on the axioms of probability theory (from

which Bayes theorem is one deduced conclusion), or based on the axioms of

probability theory appropriately combined with other axioms (such as the

axioms of predicate logic).

The appropriate combination of predicate logic with probability theory is a

tricky issue, which we've approached in Novamente via taking a "term logic"

approach to reformulating predicate logic, which seems to simplify the

matching-up with probability theory.

*> Too many people seem to think that pattern recognition
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*> and prediction making is sufficient for general
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*> intelligence. It isn't. General intelligence
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*> consists of a prediction system AND a goal system.
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This is true, but I'm not sure what it has to do with deduction.

Clearly, the mind must (explicitly or implicitly) make inferences of the

form

"Action X in context C is likely to help me achieve goal G"

Such inferences may be made based on (explicit or implicit) deduction, and

also via probabilistic induction based on historical observations (which is

where Bayes rule comes in).

*> I keep pointing out that general intelligence consists
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*> of *two* integrated systems: a system for
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*> *evaluating*/*formulating goals* and a system for
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*> *making predictions* Everyone seems to have focused
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*> on the latter and overlooked the former.
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*>
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*> What effect will a complete solution for the goal
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*> system have on the solution for the prediction system?
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*> Don't assume that these two systems are independent.
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Agreed, these systems are independent.

For instance, it is key that the system's initial supergoal(s) are

formulated in a way that is amenable to flexible goal-refinement by the

system's (implicit or explicit) reasoning systems. Otherwise the goals will

be useless in actually guiding the system's behavior.

*> The interaction between induction and deduction is
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*> clearly the weak link in the Bayesian picture.
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Again, I'm not really sure what you mean by "the Bayesian picture". I'm not

sure what Eliezer means by "the Bayesian way" either, so my confusion on

this issue is not restricted to understanding *you* ;-)

-- Ben

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