From: Thomas Buckner (firstname.lastname@example.org)
Date: Wed Feb 16 2005 - 04:44:43 MST
--- Michael Wilson <email@example.com>
> > It's just that the knowledge requirements to
> contribute anything
> > relevant to the existing theory appear so
> high that there's
> > hardly anyone who can meet them.
> Thus the low expected utility of a public
> discussion; it probably
> wouldn't be worth the time even if the
> planetkill risk wasn't there.
This is one of the considerations that have kept
me from going ahead with a Singularity novel,
even though I have given it a lot of thought. If
I get it wrong, it might as well be some Flash
Gordon dreck. If I get it right, maybe I'm
disseminating ideas I should have sat on.
BTW, Eliezer said:
"My thinking has changed dramatically. I just
don't know how to measure
that. Progress is not the same as visible
progress." Some have noted with concern that
'Eliezer was absolutely sure of X, then a year
later was absolutely sure of Y not X, then a year
later Z not X or Y'.
So be it. In this age, anyone who doesn't
radically revise their thinking every year or two
isn't keeping up.
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