RE: When does it pay to play (lottery)?

From: Ben Goertzel (
Date: Mon Jan 24 2005 - 19:44:13 MST

> I think what Eliezer just posted fits here too:
> "But I do not know how to calculate the space of AGI programs that go
> FOOM. (It's an odd inability, I know, since so many others seem to be
> blessed with this knowledge.) I don't know Novamente's source code, and
> couldn't calculate its probability of going FOOM even if I had it. I
> just know the first rule of gun safety, which is that a gun is always
> loaded.

IMO, this is foolish.

It is obvious that a GP-based optimizer running on less than a million PC's
(to be conservative) is not gonna take-off, transcend, become self-aware,

It's obvious that Cyc, SOAR and EURISKO are not going to do so.

True, we can't prove this rigorously -- but we also can't prove rigorously
that any given virus in a bio lab isn't going to mutate into a horrible
disease that's going to kill us all next week. On these, and many other
matters, we rely on scientific intuition bolstered by our much relevant

-- Ben G

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