Re: 'The Next Really Big Enormous Thing' by Robin Hanson

From: Anne Marie Tobias (
Date: Fri Oct 15 2004 - 05:38:37 MDT

I think a highly overlooked aspect of singularity is intersocial sheer.
As the
delta of technology starts approaching very large numbers, various groups
distinguished by socioeconomic class, religions, culture, and education, are
going to embody different amounts of relative inertia to change. As the
of change continues to grow, we'll begin to see tearing, and nonlinear
of change, rebounding, and the kind of natural behavior one might expect
at the turbulent edge of a singularity (by their very nature we begin to
that singularities a noisy, messy, and turbulent... )

This turbulence is already beginning to show up in our society. In fact, I'd
dare say that our greatest fears and concerns of the day are a direct
of this very phenomena.

If we are going to get through this process in any meaningful way, we may
want to begin looking at methods for reducing the amount of perturbation
encountered as we approach high rates of change.

By the way, has anybody looked at the multifaceted nature of singularity,
and how the lag time in change between different social domains will cause
pertubations of their own? In other words, looking at technology, economy,
sociopolitical structures, cultural structures, beliefs and predominant
and all the other bits and piece likely to be impacted, how will singularity
propagate through human systems? What are the repercussions? What is
the optimal means to propogate singularity, such that the most people get
through safely and relatively intact? What should our priorities be?

Just a idea I figured needing a little attention...


Marc Geddes wrote:

>Hanson has written an essay for 'Future Brief' giving
>a good sumamry of some economic arguments for a coming
>Some interesting points. Hanson points out that each
>new economic 'mode' in history resulted in a sudden
>increase in the percentage rate of economic growth by
>about 150x. (During each mode economic growth is
>exponential in absolute terms but is constant in
>*percentage* terms)
>For instance the beginning of the 'farming' mode, saw
>a sudden jump in the economic growth rate by 150x.
>Then the beginning of the 'industrial' mode saw
>another sudden jump in growth rates by 150x. Since
>the onset of the 'industrial' mode, world economic
>growth has been constant in percentage terms (about 3%
>over the last couple of centuries, or a doubling of
>the world economy every 15-20 years).
>Hanson equates the next 'mode' with SAI. If he's
>right we can actually estimate how fast the world
>economy will grow once RPOP is operational. He points
>out another 150x increase in economic growth rates at
>Singularity would result in the world economy doubling
>every 10 days or so!
>I have listed the estimated multiplication of wealth
>once RPOP is operational
>Days after Singularity/Increases in real world wealth
>Only 70 days after Singularity, the total wealth in
>existence in the world is expected to have increased
>128 fold!
>Link to Hanson article:
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