From: Marc Geddes (marc_geddes@yahoo.co.nz)
Date: Thu Sep 30 2004 - 04:35:14 MDT
--- Eliezer Yudkowsky <sentience@pobox.com> wrote:
> > choice anyway.
>
> Unfortunately, this isn't an either-or proposition.
> Building a nanofactory
> does not prevent anyone else from creating an AI.
> Quite the opposite. It
> gives them 10^25 ops/sec or some other ridiculous
> amount of computing power
> that lets them brute-force the problem even if they
> don't have the vaguest
> idea of what they're doing. If you solve the FAI
> problem, you probably
> solve the nanotech problem. If you solve the
> nanotech problem, you
> probably make the AI problem much worse. My
> preference for solving the AI
> problem as quickly as possible has nothing to do
> with the relative danger
> of AI and nanotech. It's about the optimal ordering
> of AI and nanotech.
>
> --
> Eliezer S. Yudkowsky
> http://intelligence.org/
> Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for
> Artificial Intelligence
>
I think humanity is probably O.K without FAI up until
about 2030, but after that it's danger time. Assuming
true general purpose nano-assemblers by 2015 (Moore's
law), it would take another 15 years or so to develop
full-blown nano-applications widely avaliable outside
the lab. So the nano-revolution should be hitting us
in force around 2030.
When I ws developing scenarios for my sci-fi novels,
the scary thing is that even being as conservative as
possible, nearly all scenarios I could come up with
resulted in the world starting to fall apart sometime
between 2030 and 2040 due to the influence of the
nano-revolution.
Nano places too much power in the hands of small
groups and individuals. Central govrenment starts to
fall apart in all scenarios between 2030 and 2040.
My guess is that 2040 is probably the DEAD-line for
humanity to develop FAI.
We're O.K without FAI up until around 2030. It's
danger time after that. And we're probably dead-meat
without FAI before 2040.
So synchronize your watches SL4 team. T-36 years is
the dead-line (literally). One way or the other,
it'll all be over before 2040.
=====
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