From: Samantha Atkins (samantha@objectent.com)
Date: Mon Aug 30 2004 - 01:02:16 MDT
What is the probability that all intelligent evolved sentient species
in the universe will waste so much time in mind-numbing intellectual
bantering that none of them reach and survive Singularity?
- samantha
On Aug 28, 2004, at 9:18 AM, fudley wrote:
> Me:
>>> A computer running a simple little program that will search though
>>> the
>>> even numbers and stop at the first one that is not the sum of 2
>>> primes
>>> greater than two; Tell me the probability, even approximately, it
>>> will
>>> eventually stop.
>
> "J. Andrew Rogers" <andrew@ceruleansystems.com>
>
>> It will stop when there is insufficient memory to represent the
>> numbers
>> in question. Stopping and finding a correct answer (or any answer)
>> are
>> only loosely related.
>
> OK, let’s talk about a real world computer then, a computer with a very
> large but finite amount of memory, let’s call it X. What is the
> probability, even approximately, that the machine will stop before it
> reaches X, its memory limit? What is the shortcut algorithm to figure
> this out other than running the original program and waiting to see
> what
> happens?
>
> If that’s too hard try this one, how can I calculate if this atom of
> tritium I hold in my hand will decay in the next 12.3 years? I don’t
> demand an exact answer, just show me how to get a probability that is
> even a little bit better than what I’d get by flipping a coin.
>
> John K Clark
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