From: Philip Sutton (Philip.Sutton@green-innovations.asn.au)
Date: Mon Jun 14 2004 - 08:58:55 MDT
Evolving Logic has developed and is continuing to work on tools for
handling complex adaptive systems where no model less complex than
the system itself can accurately predict in detail how the system will
behave at future times
http://www.evolvinglogic.com/Learn/pdf/ToolsTechniques.pdf
Tools and Techniques for Developing Policies for Complex and
Uncertain Systems
Steven C. Bankes (bankes@rand.org)
Senior Computer Scientist
RAND
Abstract: Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) can be characterized as
those systems for which no model less complex than the system itself
can accurately predict in detail how the system will behave at future
times. Consequently, the standard tools of policy analysis, based as
they are on devising policies that perform well on some best estimate
model of the system, cannot be reliably used for CAS. This paper
argues that policy analysis for CAS requires an alternative approach to
decision theory. The general characteristics of such an approach are
described, and examples provided of its application to policy analysis.
Keywords: Complex adaptive systems (CAS), Decision Theory,
Computational Experiments, Deep Uncertainty, Robustness, Adaptive
Policies.
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