From: Thomas Buckner (tcbevolver@yahoo.com)
Date: Sun May 30 2004 - 17:13:24 MDT
--- Mitch Howe <mitch@iconfound.com> wrote:
> Philip Sutton and Mark Waser wrote:
> --
> (that multiple AGI is better than one)
> --
>
>
> You both believe that checks and balances are
> important. You both seem to
> understand that an AGI will be immensely powerful.
>
> And you are both correct.
>
> However, by suggesting that creating multiple,
> different new minds would
> make us safer you are fighting the correct battle in
> the wrong country.
>
> *Any* successfully launched AGI launched in
> isolation will have the keys to
> the Solar System. Being vastly more intelligent
> than any other entity
> around does that to you. But you speak as if
> *different* AGIs could be sent
> ahead together, like three explorers in a dingy
> rowing out from the mother
> ship to a new shore -- all with something to gain
> from cooperation, and all
> free to throttle the others at will if either
> threatens to horde El Dorado
> for himself.
>
> Nope.
>
> Different AGIs would launch into new domains of
> intelligence at different
> speeds and along different trajectories. At any
> given moment, one would
> almost certainly be far more powerful than any
> other. Instead of three
> explorers in a dingy, you would have Tiny Tim in an
> inner-tube, Paul Bunyan
> on a hovercraft, and a Borg Hive on a Death Star.
> No heated discussions.
> No family council. Not even a clash of the titans.
> No contest at all.
>
> So yes, there is a very important time for checks
> and balances, and that
> time is before any AGI program goes live. Yes,
> programmers are flawed.
> Success must be ensured in spite of this. This is
> what Friendliness theory
> is all about, and one of the reasons it is so damned
> tricky. And, not
> coincidentally, it is the reason why anyone taking
> it seriously right now
> doesn't have any code to show for it. Solution
> first, implementation later.
>
> --Mitch Howe
I find your image of Tiny Tim, Paul Bunyan and the
Borg captivating, but I don't understand the phrase
'wrong country.' Is there another country that is the
right one, or do you mean every country that has AI
research going on?
I just read in Business Week that the Japanese have
had the fastest supercomputers in the world since
about 2001, with the current champion being the 40
teraflop Earth Simulator. see story
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/hardware/33796.html
I know that speed alone doesn't make the machine an AI
platform, but it's not meaningless either. I assume
those dudes are working on AI also. The University of
Virginia has a much cheaper 17 teraflop system
composed of Apple computers ( $5 million and change
compared to about $500 million for the Earth Simulator
which does not use commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS)
parts.)
Suppose there's a Japanese program that's three weeks
from hard takeoff and they never read CFAI?
I'm wondering how much computing power is needed for
human-level intelligence. I've read estimates before
but don't recall where.
Tom
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