From: Marc Geddes (marc_geddes@yahoo.co.nz)
Date: Wed Apr 07 2004 - 01:54:08 MDT
> Thus my oft-repeated statement that the true theory
> of Friendliness will
> be arrived at only:
>
> A) by experimentation with fairly smart AGI's that
> can modify themselves
> to a limited degree
>
> B) by the development of a very strong mathematical
> theory of
> self-modifying AGI's and their behavior in uncertain
> environments
>
> My opinion is that we will NOT be able to do B
> within the next few
> decades, because the math is just too hard.
>
I'd be surprised if AGI is developed in less than 30
years. I'm looking at a 50 year time-frame actually.
But can the world hold togther for another 30-50 years
without destroying itself? Humanity is going to need
a bit of luck to 'pull through'. The two 'attractors'
(Super intelligence and extinction) are racing neck
and neck and I think it's going to be a very close
call in the end....
=====
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