Re: Hardware Progress: $212/GFlop/s

From: Tim Duyzer (
Date: Tue May 06 2003 - 16:48:44 MDT

I don't see machines needing 2.5 years to train. Training time for humans is
a mix of social training and education. Unlike machines, though, we can't
simply load data into a brain. Give a superintelligent machine access to a
resource such as the Internet (which by then would likely be far more
extensive and powerful than it is today, perhaps completely unrecognizeable
at all) and it would take very little time for it to become adept at social
interaction as well as extremely knowledgeable - it would have the ability
to assimilate and process information on many more levels than a human. In
the end, there'd really be no need for any kind of AI training - just plug
it in.


> The processing power to run a human-level AI is
> unknown, but is estimated to be in the range of
> 100 - 100,000 TFlop/s. Assume the most powerful
> machine available for AI work is in the $3 M price
> range. Then the expected date of a human-level
> machine is 2008-2025. The expected date for
> superintelligent machines is 7.5 years later. This
> is calculated from a human taking about 20 years
> to train. A machine 8 times faster than a human
> is expected 5 years after a human-equivalent, and
> it would be expected to train in 20/8 = 2.5 years.
> Daniel

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