**From:** John Stick (*johnstick@worldnet.att.net*)

**Date:** Sat Mar 29 2003 - 21:36:26 MST

**Next message:**Psy-Kosh: "Re: Bayesian story problem SPOILER WARNING: attempt at solution"**Previous message:**Psy-Kosh: "Re: Bayesian story problem SPOILER WARNING: attempt at solution"**In reply to:**Psy-Kosh: "Re: Bayesian story problem SPOILER WARNING: attempt at solution"**Next in thread:**Psy-Kosh: "Re: Bayesian story problem SPOILER WARNING: attempt at solution"**Reply:**Psy-Kosh: "Re: Bayesian story problem SPOILER WARNING: attempt at solution"**Messages sorted by:**[ date ] [ thread ] [ subject ] [ author ] [ attachment ]

Closer, but no. (I think the moral of this story is: Bayes easy,

fractions hard.) For a good check, just calculate out the probabilities

of the four types of eggs: red with pearl and without, blue with and

without, and do the ratio. You have it all there in your calculations

already.

Psy-Kosh wrote:

*>ACK! gpgoe munched at the last line.
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*>I really hate it when it does that.
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*>well, let's try again:
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*>spoiler space
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*>All your Bayes are..... no, I won't, too silly. :)
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*>All your spoiler spa.........No, must resist infection vector from UFAI
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*>The probability that a blue egg has a pearl is 8/13
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**Next message:**Psy-Kosh: "Re: Bayesian story problem SPOILER WARNING: attempt at solution"**Previous message:**Psy-Kosh: "Re: Bayesian story problem SPOILER WARNING: attempt at solution"**In reply to:**Psy-Kosh: "Re: Bayesian story problem SPOILER WARNING: attempt at solution"**Next in thread:**Psy-Kosh: "Re: Bayesian story problem SPOILER WARNING: attempt at solution"**Reply:**Psy-Kosh: "Re: Bayesian story problem SPOILER WARNING: attempt at solution"**Messages sorted by:**[ date ] [ thread ] [ subject ] [ author ] [ attachment ]

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