**From:** Eliezer S. Yudkowsky (*sentience@pobox.com*)

**Date:** Sat Mar 29 2003 - 18:54:02 MST

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A couple of #SL4ers have asked me for this, so I'm posting it to

SL4-the-mailing-list:

Suppose you have a large barrel containing a number of plastic eggs. Some

eggs contain pearls, the rest contain nothing. Some eggs are painted

blue, the rest are painted red. Suppose that 40% of the eggs are painted

blue, 5/13 of the eggs containing pearls are painted blue, and 20% of the

eggs are both empty and painted red. What is the probability that an egg

painted blue contains a pearl?

As a check on your calculations, the likelihood that a red egg is empty,

divided by the likelihood that an egg contains a pearl, equals

approximately .51. To use this information in the problem, of course,

would be cheating.

-- Eliezer S. Yudkowsky http://intelligence.org/ Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence

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