Quantitative Singularity data

From: Ben Goertzel (ben@goertzel.org)
Date: Sat Nov 30 2002 - 06:51:30 MST

Hi all,

Aaron McBride, Reason, Richard Kowalski & I have been working a bit on the
"Singularity popularization" side project that I suggested on this list a
few weeks ago. (SingularityPath.org is the tentative name.)

We're at a stage where it would be nice to have some more quantitative data
regarding various "Singularity metrics" to play with.

Right now Aaron is using some data on CPU speed that he dug up, to test his
dynamic graphing widget and curve-fitting algorithm.

If anyone has pointers to sources of pertinent quantitative historical data,
please let me know.

Also, if anyone else is interested in putting in some volunteer effort on
the project, please let me know as well! SingularityPath could use another
person with Web authoring skills [including forms etc.] and a little spare
time; and even more so, we could use someone with an interest in gathering &
curating historical data regarding the Singularity.

To answer the inevitable comment before it's made: Yes, we're aware that
people have done this sort of thing before! I've read the excerpts from
"The Singularity is Near" on Kurzweil's site, I've seen Kurzweil's lectures,
I've read "The Spike", etc. etc. However, we're going to present the data
differently than is done on current websites; and I also think it's good to
have an independent replication of some of the quantitative extrapolations
Kurzweil has given...

Ben G

p.s. By the way, if any of you should be inclined to mess around with
fitting hyperexponential curves to data points, we found that a conventional
unconstrained minimization algorithm worked like crap, whereas a
floating-point GA with a few acceleration tricks is reasonably rapid &

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