From: Stephen Reed (reed@cyc.com)
Date: Thu Sep 05 2002 - 09:05:55 MDT
On Wed, 4 Sep 2002, Samantha Atkins wrote:
> Stephen Reed wrote:
> > I believe that evolving AGI will impact government, industry and
> > enterprises in the manner described, one job at a time and one job
> > category/skill level at a time. The general effect will be to lower
> > costs and reduce existing bottlenecks caused by limited availability of
> > skilled labor.
> >
>
> And what do you believe will or should happen to the people
> whose skills are replaced or made obsolete by technology?
Unlike previous waves of automation, I believe that the automation caused
by an evolving AGI will create better jobs only in the first phases of its
evolution. For example, self-drive vehicles would dramatically reduce
transportation costs, freeing the commercial drivers for more
intellectually challenging jobs. But as the AGI evolves to replace the
average white collar desk job, then whole sectors of the labor force will
not be required by business. Because the outputs of the economy will
improve despite the diminished input of human labor, there will be plenty
of goods and services for everyone - supposing that equitable distribution is
worked out.
Prior to the Singularity, I suppose that I will use my increasing free
time to explore and to continue to learn. Afterwords - I can only imagine.
...some humor:
Of course, there will always be a demand for personal services [the
world's oldest profession may well be its last!].
-Steve
--
===========================================================
Stephen L. Reed phone: 512.342.4036
Cycorp, Suite 100 fax: 512.342.4040
3721 Executive Center Drive email: reed@cyc.com
Austin, TX 78731 web: http://www.cyc.com
download OpenCyc at http://www.opencyc.org
===========================================================
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.5 : Wed Jul 17 2013 - 04:00:40 MDT