From: Eliezer S. Yudkowsky (sentience@pobox.com)
Date: Sat Jul 06 2002 - 22:35:11 MDT
Mike & Donna Deering wrote:
> A 50/50 chance. Yes, those are your odds. And yes it could do
> things vastly worse or better than my examples. And you may be able
> to catch a poorly formed AI. But a sane intellectually superior AI
> of either variety can tell you all the things that would make you
> feel better and you would be no closer to knowing. So your odds are
> 50/50. You can't improve them by waiting. You can only lower your
> overall odds of survival by waiting. So place your bets, take your
> chances, and pull the lever.
"Two options" does not equal "50/50". If I roll two dice, there are
only two possibilities:
1) The numbers match.
2) The numbers don't match.
Nonetheless the odds are only 1 out of 6 that the first possibility
comes up.
To understand the relative probability of FAI and UAI, you need to look
at the various a priori arguments for and against these possibilities in
minds-and-general, the arguments that are dependent on specific features
of the mind, and so on. Then you include and exclude controllable
features of the initial conditions such that the feature set maximizes
the probability of FAI as you understand it. Seems straightforward, but
it wouldn't be possible if two options always equalled 50/50.
-- Eliezer S. Yudkowsky http://intelligence.org/ Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
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