Re: Threats to the Singularity.

From: James Rogers (
Date: Thu Jun 13 2002 - 15:24:27 MDT

On Thu, 2002-06-13 at 13:37, Stephen Reed wrote:
> Cyc, which falls very short of AGI, is 1.4 million lines of translated C
> code and the result of an 18 year project addressing only classical
> symbolic knowledge representation and deductive N-order reasoning.

I don't think this is representative of the actual requirements though.
I'd be willing to bet that the capabilities of the above system could be
reproduced in an order of magnitude fewer lines of C code if
re-architected from the ground up. That is a lot of lines of code for
something that doesn't do that much in an algorithmic sense.

> The KB (knowledge base) content can be roughly considered as source code
> if the system could use its knowledge to improve itself (and it cannot
> yet). Cyc has about 1.6 million assertions.

Again, I doubt this is particularly representative of the real problem,
although I expect the data portion of an AGI will require a lot more
effort to build than the compilable code. I don't disagree that a
really useful system would require millions of raw data nodes.

For the purposes of AGI at this point, I don't think we are really
calling this "code". People are still working on the compilable
substrate portion, never mind the data layers.

> So I believe that the creation of Seed AI is far beyond the capability of
> a single individual, and that belief is my motivation for working at
> Cycorp.

This is a flawed belief in that it appears to be based solely on the
premise of your experience with Cyc. If you don't think the Cyc
architecture is directly pertinent to AGI (and many don't), then it
becomes a null data point.

My personal meaningless guess with respect to the ceiling for the number
of lines of compiler code required to generate an AGI is about 50,000.
Any more than this and you are almost certainly doing things in the
source code that should be pushed up a layer. Of course, my data point
is as useful as most everyone else's at this point.

-James Rogers

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