From: Ben Goertzel (ben@goertzel.org)
Date: Tue May 14 2002 - 07:06:34 MDT
> I think calculating the exact moment of the Singularity should be fairly
> straight forward.
This is madness! Give us a break, will ya!!!
Since when has calculating *anything* exactly regarding a system as complex
as human society ever been possible???
> I think his charts and formulas overestimate the time to the Singularity
> (2021). My feeling is closer to 2005.
Are you taking bets? At what odds?
I consider myself a radical optimist, but Singularity 2005 just ain't gonna
happen...
> Spudboy also writes:
> >I wonder if intelligence, like the speed of light, has a
> >embedded limit?
>
> I think there has to be a limit. Consider, 2 + 2 = 4, or the solar system
> has nine planets, or the motor branch of the median nerve leaves the main
> trunk at the distal edge of the transverse carpal ligament to
> innervate the
> thenar muscles. If we both know these things can you know them
> better than
> I do? Assuming the universe is limited, once you know everything haven't
> you hit the limit?
"Assuming the universe is limited" is a very big assumption.
I think you are overoptimistic in the very short term, but overly confident
in your ability to make assessments about the long term.
But that's just my personal opinion ;>
-- Ben G
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