Re: Date of Singularity

From: Paul (
Date: Thu Feb 28 2002 - 17:42:52 MST

--- Max <> wrote:
> I'm just curious so I thought I'd aSk the list:
> When do you think the singularity will occur. IMHO I
> think it will be 5-10
> years...
> I mean, what would you do with a ~1Pflops
> computer???

This is where I disagree with most on the list. 5-10
years is quite a stretch. The problem is not one of
pure speed, but of scaling and many other complexity
factors. We could be given a computer today capable
of running at a ZetaFlop, and I doubt anyone on the
planet could coax it to come even close to anything
resembling human-equivalent sentience.

However, with combinations of both speed, a
sufficiently comprehensive cognitive science and
software complexity we could see human sentience
exceeded as early as 2020.

Paul Hughes

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