Re: AI pessimism

From: Dani Eder (
Date: Wed Aug 01 2001 - 09:38:14 MDT

That's kind of like an historian saying:

>From 8,000 BC to 3,000 BC not much progress in
civilization has been made. We went from small
walled cities (Jericho) to somewhat larger
walled cities (Kish in Sumeria). From this I
can project in 2000 AD we will have even larger
walled cities (Babylon? Rome?).

We otherwise know this as linear projection of
a hyperbolic process.

Of course, you can't really fault the guy for
his prediction. The graph y=1/x as X -> 0
is hard to tell from a straight line in the
range 1>x>0.5, and a straight line is the
simplest hypothesis.


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