Re: Floppy take-off

From: Gordon Worley (
Date: Mon Jul 30 2001 - 16:52:07 MDT

At 6:05 PM -0400 7/30/01, Carl Feynman wrote:
>Let's be optimistic and say that Webmind had an AI with a capacity of
>0.5 brains. It will take Moore's Law about 16 years to upgrade their
>machine to 1.3 kilobrains. If we assume that the rate of progress in AI
>algorithms (doubling every two years) continues, and that the AI field
>is working on the right problems, the time is decreased to about ten
>years. Still pretty long.

Um, I'm not sure how you got 16 years, but the Moore's Law analysis
can't be right. Just by doubling the speed of a 0.5 brains AI, all
it means is that a moron will have twice as many moronic thoughts in
a year. Moore's Law alone can't get us to transhuman AI, but it does
help once we have at least a 1 brain AI. When the AI reaches human
level intelligence, I'd assume it can think things humans can, like
how to write better algorithms, at which point Moore's Law will

I think you're mixing up speed increases with getting smarter.

Gordon Worley                     `When I use a word,' Humpty Dumpty            said, `it means just what I choose                it to mean--neither more nor less.'
PGP:  0xBBD3B003                                  --Lewis Carroll

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