Re: Moravec's estimates?

From: Spike Jones (
Date: Sat Apr 07 2001 - 23:59:34 MDT

Jimmy Wales wrote:

> ...OR, maybe Penrose is right, and there are quantum aspects to human
> cognition, so we need quantum computers to even come close to the
> performance. But I don't know of any solid biological or philosophical
> reason to think Penrose is right...

I disagree with Penrose on this. After following the development of
chess software over a period of 25 years, I can say that almost
*nobody* predicted the software would get as good as it ended
up being today. I didn't either.

Many club players made incorrect predictions about it year after
year after year, as the machines just continuted to get better and better.
Furthermore, much of the improvement was *strictly* because
of faster hardware, displaying many humanlike "insights". After
watching this, Ive become convinced that there is nothing
magic going on inside a meat computer. spike

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